Friars Look for Defensive Identity as Big East Play Resumes, St. John's Awaits

What does the on-off court data tell us about Providence moving forward?

Photos courtesy of Carl Rizzo at gameone_photography

Happy New Year, Friartown. After nearly two weeks without a game, Providence returns from its layoff still searching for answers on the defensive end.

At 7–6 and coming off back‑to‑back heartbreakers against Butler and Seton Hall, the Friars didn’t need a break as much as they need a breakthrough — and Saturday at Madison Square Garden offers the opportunity.

The hiatus ends against Rick Pitino, Bryce Hopkins, and St. John’s. The Johnnies (9-4 overall and 2-0 in the Big East) haven’t met expectations this season, with most considering them a top-ten club back in October. But following Wednesday’s 95-83 win at Georgetown, they’ve won five of their last six games, and their four losses came against the likes of Iowa State, Alabama, Auburn, and Kentucky.

Providence’s challenges this season have been well-documented. The Friars aren’t stopping anyone and their bigs have been unproductive, aside from sophomore Oswin Erhunmwunse.

Friar head coach Kim English changed his starting lineup the last time out, inserting freshman Jamier Jones to play alongside Jason Edwards, Jaylin Sellers, Corey Floyd Jr., and Erhunmwunse.

Did English discover something defensively with the starting lineup against Seton Hall?

Taking a look at Providence’s on- vs. off-court numbers, the Friars are a dramatically better defensive team when Jones and Erhunmwunse are on the floor.

Their Defensive Rating (points per 100 possessions against) dips drastically when Jones and Erhunmwunse sit. Providence’s Defensive Rating is almost 21 points better with Jones on the floor and 15 with Erhunmwunse. No one else on the team comes particularly close:

Providence has played six Quad 1 or 2 games this season, and their Defensive Rating against Seton Hall was their best — by quite a bit.

In fact, every other Q1 or Q2 team they faced had scored at least 90 points (Seton Hall finished with 72) and their 106.5 rating against the Hall wasn’t sterling (57th percentile), but a significant improvement comparatively:

Still, it feels like additional rotational changes would benefit the Friars.

Is it time to make the switch from Cole Hargrove to Peteris Pinnis as the backup big?

As was pointed out here following the Seton Hall loss, that game continued a season-long trend in which PC took a significant step back with Erhunmwunse sidelined. Providence was a +9 with him on the court against Seton Hall, but a -14 with backup Cole Hargrove in his place.

This isn’t just a one-game sample. The chart above highlights the difference defensively this season, while the on-off court Net Rating paints a pretty bleak picture in terms of the drop-off without Erhunmwunse:

It’s surprising to see Sellers’ rating here, which is mostly attributed to Providence’s defensive metrics when he’s on the floor. Still, his offensive production and defensive upside (due to his strength and athleticism) are more than enough to justify continuing to give him big minutes.

In full disclosure, during the practices I attended this summer, Hargrove was more than competitive with Erhunmwunse. I thought he even outplayed him the first time I watched. Other battles were even.

It just hasn’t translated to the court yet — and with January upon us it feels like time to reimagine what the backup center minutes could look like with either Peteris Pinnis or Duncan Powell logging more time there.

Saturday against St. John’s, those minutes feel better suited for Pinnis, as their best chance of slowing Zuby Ejiofor (in non-Oswin minutes) may come with the sheer size of Pinnis, versus letting Ejiofor go to work against players he’s more physically imposing than. Ejiofor’s quickness might be an issue, but I’d take my chances on throwing more size at him first.

It was a very small sample size, but Pinnis held up well in his only appearance against a high major — in 15 minutes he grabbed six rebounds and scored three points, and PC was a +4 against Florida.

After two weeks away, you’d have to imagine the coaching staff is taking a long look at getting better production from their backup big.

Would mixing in zone defense make sense?

This question comes up a lot from readers and my answer is consistent. At first blush, what does PC have to lose when considering the defensive struggles this year? The concern is that Providence’s defensive challenges have been rooted in communication and rebounding issues (moreso than physical limitations) and those could be exacerbated in a zone.

A better alternative might be token pressure to cut into the shot clock, or switching up pick-and-roll coverages more frequently.

Providence has had two weeks to reset, rethink rotations, and search for answers on the defensive end. Saturday at Madison Square Garden won’t solve everything, but it will reveal whether the Friars used the break to move closer to an identity, or whether the questions that defined the season to date will follow them into the heart of Big East play.