As I’ve said…take it, like every computer metric, with a grain of salt and heavy doses of perspective and context. Historically I’ve not agreed with many of the ratings his algorithm has spit out, including the examples I just gave.
I’m not a huge Miyakawa guy, but those bunch groupings stood out.
His methodology is mind numbingly detailed and far more advanced than my brain can fully comprehend…that said, I’ve always felt they were fundamentally flawed somewhere in the process.
According to his player ratings:
* Bryce Hopkins was the 34th best player…IN THE BIG EAST in 22-23. The same year he was one of just two unanimous picks for First Team
* In 21-21, there were apparently 24 better defenders than Justin Minaya, and Al Durham was the 44th best player in the conference
* Ryan Kalkbrenner’s defensive ratings from his freshman to senior year were 17, 10, 9, 7 and 4
So yeah…there’s something wrong there so take that for what it’s worth.
Yea, I played around with enough now to see it's good at raising questions, but not so much as providing answers. I noticed the Hopkins thing, scratched my head a bit about some Bynum data points, etc., but I think I get the general nature and logic of how where the numbers and coming from now.
That being said, it is agreeing with a fair amount that my lying eyes are telling me about Sellers getting blown by at a surprising and alarming rate and I've wondered if that knee injury isn't impacting his north south driving but it does impact his east west defensive ability to the point he's a liability on D.
What’s the statistical basis for the bad individual defensive ratings? Simple counting stats that are a simple function perhaps of pace? Or are the other more, specific stats that point to on ball weaknesses, etc? Would love to know more about this.
I something different, actually. I don't think any halftime speech or switch flipping happened; what I saw was a team of bigger, faster athletes that ran an eight player rotation eventually wearing down a more tired, smaller team with a seven man rotation, a KenPom 348 rating, and was missing it's best player.
The real focus point was the 32-31 moment with 1:20 left - when the boo birds rightfully came out. Against an average Big East team that product on the floor produces an 8-10 point deficit at that junction in the game, and there's probably some foul trouble on our bigs at that point as well that will portend a rough second half.
The passes and looks that lead to Edward's eight assists in a regular BE game would produce something closer to 3-4; he didn't do anything different than in the past - it was simply that the competition was slower and smaller which created better angles and more open shots.
As always, let me lead with the caveat that I love the Friars and the team's players, and never miss a minute of any game. But I cannot unsee what I have seen so far and I've got big concerns that my initial hopes that this was a 16-17 win, NIT type team might have been optimistic. Looking more like a 14-15 win team with Kim English under an extreme amount of pressure as we head into February (rightly or wrongly).
Owsin is an average player who hasn't really improved, is possibly at his ceiling defensively and is net negative on offense. His closeouts on anything beyond 12 feet are really bad--his feet just aren't quick enough and other teams are exploiting this every game. Nothing he can do to change this really--he just lacks the type of dancing feet needed here. The one thing he can do and is in his power to control is that he can stop blocking shots into the crowd, back into his opponents hands--or goal tending. There's a scoreboard in basketball, math matters, and what he does isn't reducing his opponents points per possession as much as it could.
Hargrove looks bad; his first instinct when he gets a rebound is to chuck it out to the first person he sees on the perimeter--seems to be he's being coached that way but not sure that's super effective. Might help the team a bit more for him to look to go up strong and at the very least draw a foul or two a game--we are going to need to get other team's bigs in foul trouble if we are going to have a chance in real games given our own size issues. I watch him and can't help but wondering why, oh why did they not keep Bonke.
There's enough offense there to make this team fun to watch and to dream on a bit, but the defensive talent just isn't there I fear. Some of it's scheme, for sure; English is playing a game where he wants to race down the court and get more good three looks and force you into less of that--and more of the two point midrange variety. They just lack the height and closeout quickness to execute on this plan, and with the Jimmies and Joes he has on this team - not sure he can easily switch the X's and O's to another strategy and be effective this year. (Meaning, we don't have a PG).
Also, Jamier Jones needs more minutes and it seems like he's going to get them. Not sure how you get him and Mela on the court alot at the same time but they both play bigger than their actual heights and this team needs that. Especially with this pace - more possessions lead to more fouls - Oswin has not shown himself coordinated or capable enough to not make that unforced error or two in the first half of every game up to this point--why would that change moving forward? Hopefully Powell can do something here...jury is still out in my mind on him but man I hope he's got something to offer defensively down low.
The offensive stats are so welcome after more than a decade of pulling teeth...but some of the defensive stats are scary.
According to Evan Miyakawa, PC currently has:
* 5 of the 6 worst defensive players in the Big East with 150 possessions played
* 4 of the 10 worst defensive players in the BE regardless of possession played
* the worst defensive player in the league by a substantial margin ratings wise…Jaylin Sellers
I hate this feeling of Keno Davis…so I looked. In Keno’s 3 miserable seasons, PC gave up 89+ in the nonconference…once. A 110-97 OT win at GWU.
That said…the next 10 days could change everything.
This Evan Miyakawa site has changed my life. thanks for pointing it out.
As I’ve said…take it, like every computer metric, with a grain of salt and heavy doses of perspective and context. Historically I’ve not agreed with many of the ratings his algorithm has spit out, including the examples I just gave.
I’m not a huge Miyakawa guy, but those bunch groupings stood out.
His methodology is mind numbingly detailed and far more advanced than my brain can fully comprehend…that said, I’ve always felt they were fundamentally flawed somewhere in the process.
According to his player ratings:
* Bryce Hopkins was the 34th best player…IN THE BIG EAST in 22-23. The same year he was one of just two unanimous picks for First Team
* In 21-21, there were apparently 24 better defenders than Justin Minaya, and Al Durham was the 44th best player in the conference
* Ryan Kalkbrenner’s defensive ratings from his freshman to senior year were 17, 10, 9, 7 and 4
So yeah…there’s something wrong there so take that for what it’s worth.
Yea, I played around with enough now to see it's good at raising questions, but not so much as providing answers. I noticed the Hopkins thing, scratched my head a bit about some Bynum data points, etc., but I think I get the general nature and logic of how where the numbers and coming from now.
That being said, it is agreeing with a fair amount that my lying eyes are telling me about Sellers getting blown by at a surprising and alarming rate and I've wondered if that knee injury isn't impacting his north south driving but it does impact his east west defensive ability to the point he's a liability on D.
What’s the statistical basis for the bad individual defensive ratings? Simple counting stats that are a simple function perhaps of pace? Or are the other more, specific stats that point to on ball weaknesses, etc? Would love to know more about this.
I something different, actually. I don't think any halftime speech or switch flipping happened; what I saw was a team of bigger, faster athletes that ran an eight player rotation eventually wearing down a more tired, smaller team with a seven man rotation, a KenPom 348 rating, and was missing it's best player.
The real focus point was the 32-31 moment with 1:20 left - when the boo birds rightfully came out. Against an average Big East team that product on the floor produces an 8-10 point deficit at that junction in the game, and there's probably some foul trouble on our bigs at that point as well that will portend a rough second half.
The passes and looks that lead to Edward's eight assists in a regular BE game would produce something closer to 3-4; he didn't do anything different than in the past - it was simply that the competition was slower and smaller which created better angles and more open shots.
As always, let me lead with the caveat that I love the Friars and the team's players, and never miss a minute of any game. But I cannot unsee what I have seen so far and I've got big concerns that my initial hopes that this was a 16-17 win, NIT type team might have been optimistic. Looking more like a 14-15 win team with Kim English under an extreme amount of pressure as we head into February (rightly or wrongly).
Owsin is an average player who hasn't really improved, is possibly at his ceiling defensively and is net negative on offense. His closeouts on anything beyond 12 feet are really bad--his feet just aren't quick enough and other teams are exploiting this every game. Nothing he can do to change this really--he just lacks the type of dancing feet needed here. The one thing he can do and is in his power to control is that he can stop blocking shots into the crowd, back into his opponents hands--or goal tending. There's a scoreboard in basketball, math matters, and what he does isn't reducing his opponents points per possession as much as it could.
Hargrove looks bad; his first instinct when he gets a rebound is to chuck it out to the first person he sees on the perimeter--seems to be he's being coached that way but not sure that's super effective. Might help the team a bit more for him to look to go up strong and at the very least draw a foul or two a game--we are going to need to get other team's bigs in foul trouble if we are going to have a chance in real games given our own size issues. I watch him and can't help but wondering why, oh why did they not keep Bonke.
There's enough offense there to make this team fun to watch and to dream on a bit, but the defensive talent just isn't there I fear. Some of it's scheme, for sure; English is playing a game where he wants to race down the court and get more good three looks and force you into less of that--and more of the two point midrange variety. They just lack the height and closeout quickness to execute on this plan, and with the Jimmies and Joes he has on this team - not sure he can easily switch the X's and O's to another strategy and be effective this year. (Meaning, we don't have a PG).
Also, Jamier Jones needs more minutes and it seems like he's going to get them. Not sure how you get him and Mela on the court alot at the same time but they both play bigger than their actual heights and this team needs that. Especially with this pace - more possessions lead to more fouls - Oswin has not shown himself coordinated or capable enough to not make that unforced error or two in the first half of every game up to this point--why would that change moving forward? Hopefully Powell can do something here...jury is still out in my mind on him but man I hope he's got something to offer defensively down low.