Previewing Creighton: Why the Hype is More Than Real in Omaha

There will be those who question if Creighton, a program that reached its first Sweet 16 in four decades when they made it in 2021, is worthy of a preseason top five ranking heading into the 2022-23 season. That’s what comes with being a school that has yet to make a consistent mark in March, when most of the nation starts really paying attention.

And while this site tends to take a more reserved, wait-and-see approach with most matters, that won’t be the case when previewing Greg McDermott’s club this year. Creighton is very much a Final Four contender.

Here’s why:

The Baylor Effect

That would be Baylor Scheierman, the South Dakota State transfer who had offers from the likes of Duke, Kentucky, and Gonzaga last spring, but picked Creighton due to the proximity to his family, and the Jays’ style of play.

It’s telling that it felt as though Providence’s terrific wing defender Justin Minaya did a good job against him in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament, yet Scheierman still ended up with 18 points, 10 rebounds, and three assists on 7-17 shooting.

One of the questions surrounding Creighton this season is how they will overcome the loss of all league forward Ryan Hawkins, who averaged 13.8 points and 7.8 rebounds last year. Hawkins had five games of 25 points or more, 19 contests in which he hit at least three 3-pointers, and wrapped up the year with 11 double doubles.

Scheierman is even more versatile. His numbers are robust: 16.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists a night last year, after going for 15.4/9.2/4.0 as a sophomore the year prior. He shot 46.9% from three last season, ranked in the 98th percentile in the country in spot up shooting, 91st as a pick and roll scorer, and 96th in post up scoring (on a healthy 39 possessions).

Doubters will question how this all translates when he steps up a weight class. Well, he had 18 rebounds and six assists versus Alabama last year, and went for 28 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists in the Summit League championship game as a sophomore — a two-point loss to the Oral Roberts club that beat Ohio State and Florida in the 2021 NCAA Tournament before falling by a bucket to Arkansas in the Sweet 16.

Scoring and rebounding numbers aside, what makes Scheierman a terrific addition for the Bluejays is his passing ability. This is an instinctual passer at 6’7 whose ball movement has a trickle down effect on his teammates. Scheierman plays the game with flair and should see his national profile take off this season.

Sophomore Leaps

Perhaps no Big East team has had worse luck than Creighton since the league realigned in 2013. They were 18-1 and spent two months in the AP top 10 in 2017 before star point guard Mo Watson went down with a knee injury. Their 2020 team looked like a Sweet 16/Elite 8 contender before the season was canceled (and point guard Marcus Zegarowski hurt his knee).

Their fortunes weren’t much better last season, but they kept fighting through it thanks, in large part, to a resilient bunch of newcomers. Point guard Ryan Nembhard won the Big East Rookie of the Year award last season, yet saw his year cut short after breaking his wrist in late February. The Canada native came to Creighton with a big-time rep after leading powerhouse Montverde Academy in high school.

The Jays had two other all-league freshmen last year in Arthur Kaluma (who missed four games in February) and Trey Alexander. The stock of each took off in a postseason that saw Creighton reach the Big East Tournament championship game, and earn a come-from-behind overtime win over a tough San Diego State team in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, before they pushed Kansas to the brink.

A huge reason for that was the play of Kaluma and Alexander. The loss of Nembhard certainly hurt, but it also put the ball in the hands of these two talented freshmen — and they delivered.

Alexander showed what he could do as a playmaker in the NCAA Tournament, going for 14 points and nine assists against Kansas after a 14 point, five rebound, four assist game against San Diego State. The Auburn decommit had scored in double figures just once through mid-January, but was lethal off the bounce in the postseason. He has the talent to take a big step forward in year two and has an old school pull-up game that makes him a difficult cover.

Kaluma has NBA size and athleticism (6’7, 220), which was on display in his 24 point, 12 rebound outing against Kansas. He put up 10.4 points and 5.4 rebounds as a freshman and should see an increase in production this year. Kaluma could be the best NBA prospect on their roster.

Both Kaluma and Alexander shot below 30% from distance last year. An increase to 33-35% for either would make them significantly tougher to defend.

Last season’s highly-touted freshman class also included Mason Miller (the son of long-time NBA wing Mike Miller, and nephew of Creighton assistant Ryan Miller) who redshirted last year, but is reportedly one of the best pure athletes and shooters on the roster. On a Creighton team that, uncharacteristically, struggled from deep last year, Miller could add a big boost after gaining 15 pounds of muscle in his year away.

Kaluma (49), Nembhard (69), Miller (74), and Alexander (76) were all top 100 prospects in the class of 2021, according to 247 Sports.

A Return to Offensive Form

The Jays finished 23-12 last year, and 12-7 in the Big East, despite a down year for them offensively.

Creighton ranked 112th in the country in offensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy, marking the first time they were outside of the top 50 since 2015. Their offensive efficiency rankings in the ten previous seasons: 25th, 3rd, 47th, 25th, 32nd, 43rd, 59th, 2nd, 5th, and 66th.

The Jays were 305th in the country in 3-point field goal percentage last year. That’s a huge drop for a team that is typically one of the best in the country. The loss of Hawkins won’t help, but between improvement from the returnees and some key newcomers with reps as shooters (Scheierman, Miller, and TCU transfer/sniper Francisco Farabello) a return to form is likely.

With the talent on this roster, it would be surprising if the Jays didn’t return to a top-tier offensive club.

The Man in the Middle

It’s a testament to the depth of the Jays, and how underrated he remains, that it has taken this long to get to center Ryan Kalkbrenner. McDermott had a big-time recruiting victory when the 7’1 center committed to Creighton’s 2020 class.

While Connecticut center Adama Sanogo will be the biggest name in the league heading into this season, Kalkbrenner could make a case for the league’s best big man.

Creighton was able to win so many games last season, despite their relative inexperience and a down shooting year, because Kalkbrenner was such a force on both ends. Creighton had never ranked in the top 100 in adjusted field goal percentage defense prior to his arrival. They were 42nd in the country during his freshman season and rose to 12th in 2021-22.

Before the arrival of Kalkbrenner, the best Creighton had done in opponents’ two-point field goal shooting against as a Big East club was 110th nationally. Last season they were eighth.

Kalkbrenner blocked 2.6 shots per game last year, and fouled just 1.4 times a night. As a result, he was named Big East Defensive Player of the Year as a sophomore.

For as good as he is defensively, Kalkbrenner is not just a defensive specialist. He went for 22 points and 10 rebounds against Sanogo in a late-season victory over the Huskies. He was outstanding in the postseason before injuring his knee in the NCAA Tournament opener against San Diego State.

He went for 16 points and 10 rebounds in that game, and ripped off a Big East Tournament run of 14/9/3/2 against Marquette, 15/9/5 versus Providence, and 19/8/3 in the title game against Villanova.

All of those numbers came against teams that reached the NCAA Tournament last March. Creighton went 3-1 in those games, with their only loss coming to a Final Four club in Villanova.

Kalkbrenner also ranked in the top ten nationally in offensive rebound percentage and top five in field goal percentage. His offensive wasn’t only based on put-backs, however.

His 1.168 points per possession ranked in the 98th percentile nationally. He was 94th in the country when posting-up and in the 90th percentile as a roll man.

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So, what are the concerns heading into the 2022-23 season? We will have to see how Nembhard and Kalkbrenner look after coming back from season-ending injuries that occurred late in the year. McDermott tweeted that Kalkbrenner’s knee injury was “not as significant” as they originally feared. Both Kalkbrenner and Nembhard were back on the floor by June, so they should be good to go.

Perhaps more significant would be what Pat Riley has dubbed “The Disease of More.” With his style of play, Scheierman should fit in seamlessly on paper (especially with Hawkins and all of his touches departing), but there are a lot of mouths to feed and young players looking to take on bigger roles. Both Alexander and Kaluma showed how dangerous they could be with the ball in their hands more in the postseason, but now Nembhard returns to run the show.

McDermott will also be tasked with re-integrating point guard Shereef Mitchell into the lineup, who missed most of last season after being injured six games in. Mitchell was viewed as a potential starter at this time last year.

These are problems that most coaches would kill for, however, and McDermott is certainly one who can manage it.

McDermott has done a tremendous job at Creighton, and not really given the credit for it on the national level, where so much is based on March success.

Reaching the Big East Tournament final and trailing Kansas by a point with a minute left while down three starting-level players was a great accomplishment. The Jays have cracked the AP top 10 in four different seasons during their Big East run — all coming under McDermott.

It seems like a distant memory now, but there were questions about how McDermott would fare after the graduation of his All American son, Doug, in 2014. He has won 20+ games in eight of his nine seasons as a Big East head coach, averaging just shy of 22 wins per year since coming to the league.

The 2022-23 Jays have tremendous talent and a coach who is more than capable of piecing it all together. They should be heavy Big East favorites prior to the season, and with any luck, they could be the first Big East team other than Villanova to reach the Final Four since realignment.