Providence Bets on Bryan Hodgson: Will His Formula Scale Up in the Big East?

Through the month of November the seasons of Providence and South Florida looked eerily similar.

A portion of the Friar fanbase declared the year over when their group started 4-4, with losses to Virginia Tech (107-101 in overtime), at Colorado (97-88), then consecutive losses in San Diego to Wisconsin (104-83) and Florida (90-78) to close out the month.

Providence was playing at a blazing pace, but the defense? It was non-existent.

USF hadn’t faired any better in the season’s opening month. They also started 4-4 with losses to George Washington (99-95), Oklahoma State (103-95), VCU (78-66), and Colorado State (83-68).

The Bulls were playing at the fastest pace in the country with a defense that surrendered 55 points in the second half to George Washington and 59 more in the second at Oklahoma State.

Who would have guessed at that time that USF’s Bryan Hodgson would be taking over as the head coach in Providence just four months later?

Per multiple reports on Sunday, that’s just what’s happened.

Engineering a Turnaround

The Bulls team that entered December on shaky ground (in Hodgson’s first season at the helm in Tampa) went 21-5 the rest of the season.

It started with changes in December.

Hodgson’s group knocked off an NCAA Tournament team in Utah State to kick off the month, holding them to 61 points after taking a 41-20 halftime lead.

They then beat Charleston (81-75), fell at Alabama (104-93) and handled UMBC (94-69) and Georgia College (111-50).

The defense took a significant step forward at this time. The Bulls ranked seventh in the country in Defensive Rating (98.7), 12th in blocks (5.2) and first in steals (11.0) in December.

Their 90.6 points per game were the second most in the country, and they did so behind what would become their formula: hammering the offensive glass (they were #1 in the country in offensive rebounds and second chance points in December) and firing away from three.

USF took 29.2 3-pointers (18th in the country), and hit at 34.9%, while their 27.2 free throw attempts per game were second most in the nation for the month.

Running Through the American Conference

Opponents in the American could do little to slow South Florida this season. Hodgson’s group won the regular season and conference tournament titles after going 15-3 in league play and convincingly taking a pair of conference tournament victories over old friend Anton Bonke and Charlotte (86-64) and Wichita State (70-55) in the finale.

Their three conference losses?

• 109-106 versus UAB in double overtime

• 86-85 in overtime against Wichita State

• 79-78 at Temple

It’s worth noting that, outside of USF, only Tulsa and Wichita State finished in the top 100 nationally in either the KenPom or NET rankings this season out of the American. Four American Conference teams finished 200+ in both rankings.

Comparatively, every Big East team but DePaul were in the top 100 in both, and the Blue Demons finished #102 in each.

Providence, Napolillo Swing Big Again

Say this about Providence College and Athletic Director Steve Napolillo, they’re not afraid to swing for the fences when filling an HC vacancy.

Just three years after hiring 34-year-old Kim English after English coached two seasons at George Mason, Providence has hired another relatively young head coach with just three years’ experience as a head man. Hodgson led a two-year resurgence at Arkansas State before taking over at USF this past season.

What was Napolillo looking for this time around? “Someone who — realistically over the last three years in this new landscape — has successfully built a program.”

“The whole landscape of college basketball has completely changed, and we need to make sure the next coach at Providence College is able to do this at the highest level.”

Hodgson recruited at the highest level as an assistant at Alabama and was part of a staff at Buffalo that made the mid-major one of the best teams in the country at the time. Now, the biggest question facing him will be how he fares against the gauntlet of veteran coaches in the Big East.

It will be interesting to see how Hodgson fills out his staff at Providence. Tobin Anderson, his only assistant at USF with D1 head coaching experience, is off to Tennessee Tech, and Hodgson had a relatively young staff at USF this year.

It’s no secret by now that he brings a fiery personality to Friartown. Look no further than when he spoke about coaches tampering with his players on an appearance with the Field of 68 earlier this month.

“Any of these clowns out here that think they are going to reach out to my guys before the season ends and start sending them DMs — I will find you. I’m not like the rest of these college basketball coaches. We will have a face-to-face conversation, I can promise you that.”

“It may work with other people. It doesn’t work with me.”

How Providence Will Look Under Hodgson

Providence is going to play fast, fire away from three, and crash the offensive glass if Hodgson follows the path he’s already set.

USF played at the 12th fastest pace in the country, while they were eighth in offensive rebounding percentage, first in second chance points per game, 21st in fast break points, and sixth in points per game.

They took nearly 29 threes a night, despite hitting them at a 32.5% clip this season.

Defensively, USF turned it around after a slow start. They finished November ranked 92nd in the country in Defensive Rating at 107.3, then saw that number whittle to 98.7 in December (7th nationally).

They ranked 98th in the country in Defensive Rating in January (107.8), 22nd in February (101.4), and 7th in March (98.6).

In Providence, the hope is that Hodgson will lead the program back into NCAA Tournament contention. The Friars reached the Big Dance for five straight seasons from 2014-19, but have appeared in just two of the past seven tourneys.

There was talk this offseason of whether or not Providence was the best job on the coaching carousel. It’s a place where expectations lean high, emotions run higher, and patience runs shorter than ever in the portal era.

We’ll see if Bryan Hodgson’s formula — pace, pressure, and personality — can return PC to the national stage.