Providence’s Non‑Conference is a Wrap: What’s Working, What’s Not, and What’s Next
Providence wrapped the non-conference portion of its schedule with a rather uninspiring 86-79 victory over Brown on Tuesday night. After a week in which the Friars looked to have upped their level of intensity in wins over Fairleigh Dickinson and Rhode Island, Tuesday’s effort against the Bears looked more like the PC of November that opened the year with a 4-4 record.
Head coach Kim English labeled Tuesday’s effort “a step in the wrong direction” even as his team won its third straight game in December to finish 7-4 against non-conference opponents.
“Seven (wins) is about three games less than where we wanted to be, but now it’s time to get to work.”
English was obviously referencing the Big East portion of the schedule, which kicks off Saturday in Indianapolis against a Butler team that has been one of the surprises of the league (beware of Michael Ajayi).
Through 11 games, there have been pleasant surprises (the instant impact of freshman Jamier Jones and Stefan Vaaks), disappointment (a defense sagging behind the rest of the league), adversity (Duncan Powell, Daquan Davis, and Rich Barron missing significant time), and inconsistent effort and production.
Saturday offers a refresh for a Providence team that has talent, but hasn’t put it all together yet.
Inconsistency has plagued Providence to date.
On purely individual numbers, PC would appear to be getting the type of production they could only have hoped for from key pieces:
Jason Edwards is averaging 18.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, while keeping turnovers down (1.4) with good shooting splits: 45/80/36.
A hot streak from beyond the arc has put Jaylin Sellers at 42% shooting beyond the arc. He’s averaging 15.5 points and 4.5 rebounds on ridiculous shooting splits of his own: 50.4% from the field, 88.2% at the free throw line, 42.1% from three.
Four other Friars are averaging at least nine points per game, highlighted by the breakout of Vaaks (13.5 points), 9.9 a night out of Jones, 10.4 from veteran Corey Floyd Jr. and Ryan Mela’s 9.0.
Oswin Erhunmwunse is blocking 3.4 shots per game — good for second in the country.
Nearly every Friar fan would have expected nine or ten wins at this point of the season had they been shown those numbers back in October.
But the game isn’t played on paper.
English was straightforward in what he wants this team to look like — and what they’ve struggled with to date.
“There is no go-to guy on this team,” he said following the win over Brown.
That is by design.
“I’ll say it until I’m blue in the face. The go-to guy is the open man.”
When pressed on if not having a top “go-to” scorer was a potential problem, English asked, “Who was UConn’s (go-to scorer) when they won back-to-back national championships? I don’t know. They had six big time players.”
Fair enough. In Edwards, Sellers, and Vaaks, English has three good late-game options if he needs a bucket. Edwards is most capable of getting himself open, Sellers the most physical, and Vaaks the biggest threat to either shoot or find the open man out of a ball screen.
For all of Providence’s offensive output, English touched on a problem this team has faced: finding consistency.
“It’s going to be a different guy every night, but as we get into Big East play, I do want to start to know the guys we’ll depend on.”
English didn’t come out and say it, but his biggest challenge this year is knowing what he’ll get from not only a production standpoint, but an effort and execution perspective.
That’s what made Tuesday’s showing against Brown disappointing. The urgency was lacking outside of Jones and Cole Hargrove — and this should be a team desperate to string together enough good showings to start to put November behind them.
Jones and Sellers seem to be stepping into the role of consistent energy givers, but with the Big East schedule upon them, Providence still looks to be searching for consistency in terms of both energy and execution.
The defense has fallen flat.
In a preseason filled with interesting subplots, perhaps the most important in year three for English was the state of the defense.
I asked five key questions heading into the season, with defense being at the forefront. Would Providence look anywhere near the top-20 defense we saw in English’s first season, or more like one of the worst in the Big East like last year?
The early results haven’t been promising:
Even with an elite shot blocker, Providence ranks last in the Big East in Defensive Rating. It was telling that Saturday against URI felt like a step forward, even though a Rams team that struggled to hit from deep made 14 of the 29 threes they attempted. Opponents are shooting 35.8% from three against PC this year and have made 107 threes in 11 games.
There are reasons for optimism.
Vaaks and Jones have been revelations in their first year. English continues to clean up when it comes to landing young players. Vaaks is capable of swinging games with his scoring ability and is the most advanced passer on the team, while Jones’ effort, energy, and production have been exceptional since the team returned from its Thanksgiving trip to San Diego.
As English said, “Jamier keeps putting himself in position to see his minutes go up and up and up.”
He certainly does.
Sellers looks to have found his offensive groove as well. Foul trouble has limited him to 26 minutes per game, but he’s still putting up over 15 points a night. He has shot 14-20 from beyond the arc since a 1-9 performance against Penn State.
Meanwhile, Mela and Edwards appear to be caught in-between roles at times. Mela went for 17/8/3 against Florida, 7/9/5 in the win over Penn State, and 18/12/4 versus Penn, but has had other nights when he hasn’t asserted himself. On a team filled with scorers, it’s probably not a big surprise that Mela has picked his spots offensively.
The Providence staff is likely fine with what they are getting from Mela, but figuring out how to get the best out of Edwards is a bigger challenge.
Edwards was viewed as the headliner of this group heading into the season. He was the top scorer on a 19-win North Texas team and scored twice as many points as anyone else at Vanderbilt. The Dores went on a surprise run to the NCAA Tournament last year.
Edwards scored in bunches early in the year, but his role has changed.
He’s come off the bench in four straight games and played about 24-25 minutes a night during that time. Prior to the trip to San Diego, Edwards logged 30+ minutes in four of PC’s six games.
He has shot the ball at a high clip from three coming off the bench (10-21), but it just feels like his longer-term role this season is murky with conference play nearing. The staff is tasked with balancing his offensive impact with defensive challenges.
The fate of the Friars could very well rest in the hands of its frontcourt players. Erhunmwunse was under the weather against Brown, but looks to have taken steps forward in terms of his decision-making on both sides of the ball. He’s flashing some passing ability, isn’t trying to block everything, and has looked stronger in longer stretches after appearing gassed at times in November.
Perhaps the biggest swing player on this roster is Duncan Powell, who returned against URI with a very solid performance before showing rust against Brown. The Friars missed Powell for a number of reasons:
He offers positional flexibility. PC can play small and pull bigs away from the basket by playing him at center, or they can go much bigger with Powell at the four, Erhunmwunse at the five, and Jones a super-sized athletic three.
Offensively, Powell is capable of hitting a handful of threes and he should bring some passing and decision-making ability once he’s up to speed.
The frontcourt lacked physicality without him.
Powell hurt his wrist in the season opener, then suffered a concussion that forced him out for a few weeks, but he could almost have a midseason trade effect if he comes anywhere near the form he showed at Georgia Tech. He put up 14 points per game and shot 36% in ACC play last year. Against URI, his presence was impactful.
What’s next?
We’re set to learn a lot about this group over the next week and a half. Butler is playing well, but they are certainly beatable, while Seton Hall comes to the AMP six days later in what would now be considered a really solid win.
Taking those two games would mean a 5-0 December after a tough opening month — then Providence kicks off January with a trip to Madison Square Garden to take on St. John’s before returning home to face a UConn team that looks Final Four worthy.
Much like the Friars, the Big East hasn’t done itself any favors with its non-conference performance. Providence has the talent to do some damage in this league, but it remains to be seen if they can play with the type of effort, defensive grit, and cohesion to get it done.
As long as Powell has the mask on, he will not be hitting 14 points per game.
I have watched PC play Brown for a billion years. Game is always boring… PC players never get up for it…. even Ernie, Marvin, and Kevin.
Why bring Edwards in off the bench? He deserves to start. The better we play in the first half the more likely we’ll be successful. Playing from behind is not a good place to be for us. When you have a deficit you are relying on the other team to miss shots AND always needing to rebound the ball. I think the Butler game is important. We need to get off to a good start in the Big East. Go Friars!