Putting a Bow on the Non-conference Schedule After Providence Finished 9-2

Dec 18, 2023

Playing without Devin Carter and Corey Floyd Jr. on Saturday versus Sacred Heart, Providence rallied in the second half to take a 78-64 victory and close out the non-conference portion of the schedule with a 9-2 record.

Before we look ahead to Marquette and the start of Big East play, let’s put a wrap on the 11-game non-conference schedule.

Devin Carter has been the best player on this team, and one of the best in the country.

Through both the eye test and statistically, Devin Carter has been the best player on Providence through 11 games. He is the defensive catalyst of the 17th best defensive unit in the nation this season, and Carter is putting up numbers in every way imaginable: 15.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.5 blocks, 1.3 steals, 60% shooting inside the 3-point arc, and 36% from beyond.

The list of players averaging at least 15 points, seven boards, three assists, and one block and one steal per game begins and ends with one name: Devin Carter.

Perhaps his biggest gains have come from beyond the 3-point arc, where Carter was a sub-30% shooter for two years prior to this one. He also never shot over 50% inside the arc, but is at 60% through 11 games. The 6’3 guard has had three point/rebound double doubles, six games with at least three 3-pointers made, and even had five blocks against a top-15 team in Oklahoma.

Carter plays with an endless energy and has set the tone for the Friars this season.

Carter has made the leap, will anyone else join him?

While Carter has taken a step forward as a junior, it’s not unfair to say that no one else on the roster has taken “the leap” in 2023-24. The next most likely candidate looked to be sophomore point guard Jayden Pierre early, but a groin injury caused him to miss three games (and all but a few minutes of a fourth).

Prior to getting injured in the Bahamas, Pierre was shooting 13-23 from the field (56%) and 6-11 from three. He was terrific against Wisconsin, particularly in the first half when PC put it on the Badgers. Shortly after returning, he struggled at Oklahoma and in the following game against Brown. Then Pierre shot 0-5 in the first half versus Sacred Heart, before turning it on in the second (11 points, 4-4 shooting, 3-3 from three). PC desperately needs the Pierre of the opening weeks if they figure to be a factor in the Big East.

No one else has taken a big step forward offensively, otherwise.

Bryce Hopkins is putting up slightly better numbers, with a lower percentage from three (17.2 points, 8.3 rebounds, 23% on 3s), Ticket Gaines is still looking to find his outside shot (29% beyond the arc), Corey Floyd Jr. is adjusting to his third coaching staff in three years (4.4 points per game in 21.7 minutes), while freshman Garwey Dual hasn’t looked the same since an ejection against Kansas State in the Bahamas, particularly from the perimeter (5-9 from three before, 2-13 since). Dual made an early statement in scoring 14 points with four assists, three blocks, and two steals in the second game of the season against Milwaukee, but is still looking for his next breakout game.

Josh Oduro has been as advertised.

Solid. Solid, solid, solid. The graduate transfer from George Mason has not only stepped into the formidable shoes of Ed Croswell, but he’s been a true stabilizing force on a team finding its way offensively. Oduro is shooting 62% from the field, 41% from three, and 86% at the free throw line. He is tops on this team in blocks (17) and third in assists (21). He just plays the game with such maturity, and Friartown has really taken to him.

The Big East is not who we thought they were.

It would surprise no one if Connecticut or Marquette are playing for a national championship in April. As much as it pains Providence fans to admit, Dan Hurley has done a remarkable job after losing Jordan Hawkins, Adama Sanogo, and Andre Jackson from last year’s national title winners. The best thing that might have happened to the Huskies was when Towson transfer Nick Timberlake chose to transfer to Kansas instead of UConn. That opened the door for Cam Spencer to transfer in via Rutgers, and in the process he has shot 49% from the field, 90% at the free throw line, and 46% from deep (Timberlake is a 3.5 ppg and 16% from three in Kansas). Tristen Newton is playing at an All American level (16.3/6.8/6.0), while sophomores Alex Karaban and Donovan Clingan have taken expected jumps. This group has depth thanks to the emergence of dunk machine Samson Johnson, a tough backup point guard in Hassan Diarra, and two very good freshmen in Solo Ball and Stephon Castle. UConn beat up on Indiana, North Carolina, Texas, and most recently Gonzaga. At 10-1, their only loss was at Kansas.

Marquette is 9-2, with their only losses coming in Maui to Purdue (78-75) and at Wisconsin (75-64). Like Connecticut, they will enter Big East play with a top 10 national ranking next to their name.

The rest of the league? There’s talent there, but some troubling losses. Creighton, 9-2, is a top-15 team, but one that got waxed by both UNLV and Colorado State. Butler has given the league a lift, with a 9-2 mark and wins over Texas Tech, Penn State, and Cal.

The press was quick to anoint Rick Pitino and St. John’s, but they were hammered by Michigan, and lost to Dayton and Boston College. Fellow preseason darling Villanova has been tough to figure, with wins over UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis, Texas Tech, and Maryland mixed in with losses to Drexel and Penn.

The bottom of the league features a few teams perfectly capable of pulling upsets in league play, but with less-than-impressive starts. Seton Hall (7-4) hadn’t beaten anybody until Sunday’s win over Missouri. Xavier’s injury troubles are looking like a lot, even for Sean Miller (5-5). DePaul (2-7) is putrid once again, while Georgetown (7-4) has some scorers, but doesn’t defend anywhere near the level at which Ed Cooley was known for at Providence. Their loss to Holy Cross was embarrassing, and they were a miraculous shooting night from Jayden Epps away from losing American, but conversely they just beat Notre Dame (albeit not a good Irish team) on the road, and are a bad call away from beating TCU and starting 8-3 — a mark Georgetown fans would have signed up for in October.

Bryce Hopkins’ transition to Kim English’s offense has come with its bumps.

Kim English said this week that he wasn’t overly concerned with Bryce Hopkins’ shooting numbers in non-conference play. It’s telling that Hopkins is averaging over 17/8 a night and the season feels like it isn’t up to his standards. That’s all rooted in his 3-point shooting percentage (23%), turnover issues (28) and because his worst games came in Providence’s two losses (14 points, 3-16 shooting in an OT loss to Kansas State, and 8 points on 4-11 at Oklahoma). Hopkins has shot over 60% from the field in four of PC’s last six games, and now that league play is here there won’t be any more caveats about the level of competition when he puts up big numbers.

The concerns weren’t unfounded, however.

It seemed like Hopkins was unsure of how to find his offense in this system for much of November, but he’s getting into the paint with greater frequency and throwing multiple ball fakes before finishing at the rim of late, demonstrating the type of patience English was preaching to him earlier in the year.

Offseason losses have hurt more than initially feared.

In an era in which head coaches feed television commentators excuses on the regular, only to have said announcers parrot back stats about a team’s record when fully healthy, or since a certain date, there is nothing mentioned about how different Providence’s roster looks now than what we thought it would be in the spring.

His numbers from his freshman season don’t show it, but George Mason-to-PC transfer Justyn Fernandez likely would have played a significant role on this team if he hadn’t injured his knee in the spring. Having watched a lot of Mason games from last season, Fernandez really came on late in the year — both as a shooter and penetrator. He’s a 6’5 athletic freak that would have been a boost to this bench.

PC chose not to add a veteran point guard, instead riding with Pierre (who didn’t play many minutes last year) and a freshman in Dual. While he was more of a combo guard, Alyn Breed would have been a steady senior in the backcourt, who could have spotted minutes at the one (especially when Pierre was hurt) and defended well. Perhaps the inclusion of Breed on this roster impedes the development of Pierre, Dual, and Floyd…we’ll never know.

Maybe most significantly, the September transfer of Will McNair Jr. left Providence very thin up front on the bench — literally and figuratively. Rafael Castro held up well in the win over Wisconsin, and had some moments in the Bahamas (7 and 5 versus K-State), but has played sparingly of late (3 minutes versus both URI and Oklahoma and 8 against Sacred Heart) and has had trouble handling the ball.

Freshman Rich Barron has been a bright spot in spurts off the bench, and then he buried four 3-pointers in the non-conference finale against Sacred Heart. The Friars could really use another shooter, and Barron may be able to fill that void.

Regardless, PC lost a lot of experience in the offseason that would have made this a far different bench.

Ups and downs of the young point guards.

There were Friar fans who were readying to say goodbye to Garwey Dual after he shined in the second game of the season, while Pierre was the tempo-setter before getting injured.

Over the past month, Dual seems caught between over-dribbling and struggling with when to attack, while Pierre has had turnover issues since returning to the lineup.

The guess here? Pierre is on the verge of figuring it out, while Dual will follow the path of other recent productive freshmen here who start to click at the end of January. As both a playmaker and a shooter, Pierre is utterly essential if Providence is to do damage in the Big East. Defense can win championships, and the Friars currently have a top-20 group on that end of the floor, but PC is also hovering around #120 nationally in offensive efficiency.

Ultimately, surviving the non-conference with a respectable record, grabbing a few noteworthy victories, and walking away without any disastrous losses is a formula for a solid resume when you play in a top 3-4 conference. Now, Providence will look to put it all together in conference play, which kicks off with three home games against #7 Marquette, Butler, and Seton Hall.

This is a Friar team with question marks, but one with a terrific trio of stars and a statistically great defense. We’re about to see if that’s enough to get them back to the Big Dance come March.

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