What I Had Wrong About This Providence Team Before the Season

Following Wednesday’s 75-62 loss at TCU, Providence was, once again, left with more questions than answers.

The TCU game was Providence’s last chance at an impressive non-conference victory, but winning in Fort Worth against a top 25 quality team was a big ask for a Friar team that has lacked any sort of cohesion on either end of the floor through eight games.

Realistically, PC’s first road game of the 2022-23 season provided an opportunity for the Friars to show some resiliency, for Ed Cooley to learn which members of his team were ready to fight against a more experienced team that is much farther along in their development.

That’s just what we saw in the first half after Providence trailed 11-2 out of the gate. They later survived a pair of foul calls on Bryce Hopkins on consecutive possessions midway through the first half to eventually take a lead before heading into the locker room down by five after a late 3-pointer by the Horned Frogs.

We saw Jayden Pierre provide a spark (13 points off the bench), Hopkins come alive late in the second half (albeit too late), and Devin Carter take 13 foul shots on an assortment of drives, transition takes, and post up opportunities.

None of it mattered in the end, however, as big-bodied Eddie Lampkin dominated the paint with 16 points and 12 boards (seven offensive) to lead six TCU players in double figures.

The Friars are now 5-3 and have looked overwhelmed at times against the likes of Miami and TCU — and flat against lesser competition.

So, how did we get to a point in which this Providence team has looked so unsure of itself? There are a number of factors, but here are a few things I had wrong prior to the beginning of this season.

1. The significance of transitioning from Nate Watson to a three-headed monster at center.

In his fifth year at PC, Watson averaged 13.3 points and 5.2 rebounds per game, while shooting 54.8% from the field. Those numbers were solid, but down a bit from the year prior (16.9 points, 6.7 rebounds) as Watson was surrounded by a deeper core in his final season in black and white.

Ed Croswell emerged as a quality reserve behind Watson a year ago, and while no one expected him to match Watson’s numbers or impact on the offensive end, even Cooley said in the preseason that he believed Croswell was a more versatile piece.

The addition of a shot blocker in Clifton Moore, and potential development of redshirt freshman Rafael Castro, meant Providence could potentially have better rim protection in 2022-23.

I figured what Providence lost offensively at the five, they could make up for in shot blocking and defensive versatility. What I’d overlooked was how Watson had to be accounted for in the post on every possession, and the sheer size and athleticism he brought. Both Miami and TCU had their way on the interior against the Friars in a way they likely wouldn’t have with the 6’10, 260 pound Watson inside.

2. The need to play faster.

I never particularly wanted Providence to play faster under Cooley, a coach who seemed to love dirtying games up and letting the tougher team win. That was the identity under him here, and it has worked.

This current group of Friars is 258th in the country in tempo, which is more than fine in most years under Cooley, but the ‘22-23 group is simply so much more effective when getting into early offense.

Take Providence’s 3-point shooting, for instance. According to CBB Analytics, the Friars are 16-30 (53.3%) from deep when taking a three in the first ten seconds of the shot clock (75th percentile nationally), 22-54 (40.7%) from 10-20 seconds (73rd percentile), and that number falls to 12-45 (26.7% — 44th percentile) when 3-pointers are taken from the 20-30 second mark of their possessions.

Synergy Sports ranks PC in the 80th percentile in transition offense, but 51st in the halfcourt. Against zones the Friars are ranked in the 38th percentile in the country.

Providence had only two proven knockdown shooters heading into this season (Jared Bynum and Noah Locke) and both are struggling mightily. If they aren’t hitting, PC will have to lean heavily on getting to the free throw line, crashing the offensive glass, and getting out in transition to win.

3. The defense has faltered.

Of course, it’s awfully hard to get out and run when you can’t string together stops. Last season’s Friars talked frequently about getting a “cherry” — stringing three consecutive stops together.

This year’s group has taken an uncharacteristic step back on the defensive end. They rank in the 26th percentile in the nation in points per possession against, per Synergy Sports, and they are 103rd nationally in Defensive Efficiency per Ken Pomeroy.

That ranking is a far, far cry from what we’ve become accustomed to under Cooley. We thought the Friars were brutal defensively two years ago when they were ranked 74th in the nation.

Here are the Friars’ Defensive Efficiency ratings since the Big East reconfigured in 2013: 94th in 2014, 42nd in 2015, 28th in 2016, 40th in 2017, 36th in 2018, 41st in 2019, 27th in 2020, 74th in 2021, 44th in 2022.

4. Inconsistency from the experienced backcourt.

I wasn’t quite sure how crowded the backcourt would get with a trio of new combo guards (Carter, Corey Floyd Jr., Quante Berry) joining returning junior Alyn Breed. I rightly assumed Berry was headed for a redshirt after having watched him in the summer of 2021 and throughout last season, figured Carter was certain to start, and then assumed Breed’s experience would win out over Floyd when the level of competition raised.

I also loved the game of freshman point guard Jayden Pierre after a solid year of watching him on the Under Armour Circuit and against national competition at Long Island Lutheran.

So far, so good, right?

I wasn’t as certain as so many others that Noah Locke was going to ease his way into the AJ Reeves role after Reeves had been in the system for four years. His outside shooting numbers were so prolific at Florida, however, that I was willing to chalk last season’s struggles up to dysfunction at Louisville.

I had little question that Jared Bynum would step seamlessly into the starting lineup. He started over 50 games in his career heading into this season, so hearing his name called before the game isn’t new.

He started 10 of PC’s 29 games last season, including a nine assist, seven rebound night in the win over Wisconsin, putting up 15/5/4 versus Northwestern, 18 and five at Butler, and going for 19 points, ten assists, and six boards at Villanova.

Bynum’s terrific shooting numbers last season were documented here earlier in the season, but they are worth sharing again:

• 19-43 on catch and shoot opportunities (95th percentile in the nation in points per possession)

• 9-21 on unguarded jumpers (76th percentile)

• 10-22 on guarded jumpers (97th percentile)

• 37-100 on jumpers off the dribble (89th percentile)

It would be hard to expect Bynum to put up anywhere near those numbers, no matter where his name landed on this year’s scouting reports, but he’s clearly battling himself right now — shooting 34% from the field and just 5-32 from long range.

Locke is 16-49 from three (.327) and played just 10 minutes off the bench on Wednesday.

Those numbers will go up for both (certainly for Bynum), but Providence needed Bynum and Locke to play up to expectations if they were to do more damage at Mohegan Sun and at TCU.

The shooting struggles of Bynum and Locke are emblematic of a Friar team that simply hasn’t found its identity this season.