Who wins in a winner-take-all game: the 2020 or the 2022 Friars?

Earlier this week, Nate Watson posed quite the interesting question to his Instagram followers: Who would win in a seven-game series — the 2019-20 Friars or the 2021-22 group?

After we just watched the 2022 team finish 14-3 in the Big East, 27-6 overall, and reach the Sweet 16 before falling to eventual national champion Kansas, my assumption would be that most would lean toward last year’s team.

When the question was first posed to me, my initial reaction was that the 2020 team would come out on top in a one-game, NCAA Tournament style matchup.

My thinking was that the 2020 team was better defensively, with four well above average defenders across positions with Alpha Diallo on the wing, David Duke Jr. and Maliek White harassing opposing backcourts, and a center in Kalif Young who was effective both in the screen and roll and as a post defender.

As I was starting to make the argument in my head, however, I thought of how there was very little separating these teams from a talent perspective — and how the 2022 group overcame any talent disparity with cohesion and a winning DNA that seemingly couldn’t be measured by any metric. There’s a reason why Ed Cooley called the 2022 team the most connected he has coached in his nearly 30-year career.

If this game was played in December or January it’s a no-contest, but what happens if the March versions of each team meet up?

Here’s the tale of the tape:

Setting new standards in the Big East: The 2020 group became the first Friar team to win 12 Big East games, and they did so behind a blazing hot February and March. Beginning on Feb. 1, the 2020 Friars won eight of their final ten games, including victories over five nationally ranked opponents — at #16 Butler and #12 Villanova, and home against #21 Creighton, #10 Seton Hall, and #19 Marquette.

In total, the 2020 team finished 5-4 against teams ranked in the AP top 25. And they did so after starting the year 0-4 against nationally ranked teams.

The 2022 club went 4-2 against teams in the AP Top 25 in the regular season, with both of those losses coming against Villanova. Those two losses came by a combined seven points, including a 76-74 loss without leading scorer Al Durham. Of course, they also finished 14-3 in the Big East, setting a new school record for conference wins while taking home PC’s first-ever regular season title.

Other than Villanova, the only team to beat the 2022 Friars from Dec. 1 until the end of February was Marquette in Milwaukee. Starting on Feb. 1, the ’22 team went 6-2 over its final eight regular season games.

The Big East was likely tougher in 2020, with four teams ranked in the final AP top 25 poll: #7 Creighton, #10 Villanova, #15 Seton Hall, and #23 Butler. In 2022, the Big East had #6 Villanova, #13 Providence, and #21 UConn.

KenPom ranked the Big East third nationally in 2020, and fourth in 2022.

Advantage: draw

Cracking the AP Top 25

This one is pretty clear-cut. The 2022 team was nationally ranked beginning on Dec. 20, and never left the AP top 25. They finished the season ranked 13th, which marked the first time Providence found itself in the AP’s final poll since 2004.

The 2020 team was not ranked throughout the season.

Advantage: 2022

Marquee Victory:

This one is tough. Do you value going on the road and taking out #12 Villanova in late February, or overcoming the defensive dominance of Texas Tech without All Big East performer Jared Bynum?

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder here. It’s probably easier to beat a conference opponent you are so familiar with, even on the road, but an argument can be made that the Tech team with all sorts of new faces didn’t have the cohesion in early December that a Jay Wright team would in late February.

Advantage: 2020

Backcourt Comparison:

Luwane Pipkins, David Duke, AJ Reeves, and Maliek White

vs.

Al Durham, Bynum, Reeves, and Alyn Breed

I’ll go with the 2022 group here. Reeves was two years more mature, and while Pipkins got hot late in the season, Bynum was even better during the entire Big East portion of the season.

White was a complete bulldog defensively who had more experience, playmaking and scoring ability than Breed, which leaves us with Duke versus Durham.

Despite Duke’s current status as an NBA player and his defensive impact as a sophomore, Durham was a fifth year player with immense intangibles who lived at the free throw line and was as clutch as any Providence guard since Bryce Cotton. I’d take a fifth year version of Durham over a second year Duke.

Advantage: 2022

Frontcourt

Alpha Diallo, Kalif Young, Nate Watson, Emmitt Holt, Greg Gantt

vs.

Nate Watson, Justin Minaya, Noah Horchler, Ed Croswell

This one felt like a no-brainer initially. Young was such a solid senior who played his role perfectly — defended like crazy, rebounded, communicated, finished at the rim, a tremendous teammate/culture builder… we could go on. Young and Nate Watson (as a junior) is an outstanding center combination.

Diallo was steady for so long that he eventually became underrated. He was a two-time all league selection who rebounded like a big (7.8 per game in 2020), was good enough to score 35 against a top ten team in Seton Hall, and ranked among the best wing defenders in the nation by Synergy Sports.

Emmitt Holt, unfortunately, wasn’t the same after returning from his surgeries, while Gantt battled through injury and the loss of his mother and only showed flashes as a freshman.

The 2022 team was just a little deeper and more versatile in the frontcourt. Outside of Kris Dunn, no one has had the defensive impact Justin Minaya did last season during Cooley’s time here. Horchler shot over 40% from three while averaging just shy of ten points and 8.5 boards a game. Watson was two years older and became a focal point offensively, while Croswell turned a number of critical games around with his energy (see: Kansas, Texas Tech).

Advantage: 2022

By the Numbers Offensively

National Offensive Efficiency Ranking per KenPom

• 2020: 75th

• 2022: 36th

Synergy Numbers:

Spot up:

• 2020: .832 points per possession (17th percentile nationally)

• 2022: .905 points per possession (43rd percentile nationally)

Transition:

• 2020: .984 (36th)

• 2022: 1.042 (60th)

Cutting:

• 2020: .987 (7th)

• 2022: 1.114 (35th)

Iso:

• 2020: .701 (29th)

• 2022: .726 (29th)

Put-backs:

• 2020: 1.125 (68th)

• 2022: 1.179 (82nd)

P&R Ball Handler:

• 2020: .639 (9th)

• 2022: .809 (72nd)

Off Screens:

• 2020: .965 (78th)

• 2022: 1.032 (82nd)

Hand Offs:

• 2020: 1.033 (93rd)

• 2022: .922 (78th)

Post-ups:

• 2020: .781 (36th)

• 2022: .911 (78th)

P&R Roll Man:

• 2020: .933 (39th)

• 2022: 1.16 (85th)

Long Jumpers:

• 2020: .985 (51st)

• 2022: .104 (74th)

The most glaring difference is the effectiveness of the 2022 group in the pick and roll game. PC’s pick and roll ball handlers finished in just the 9th percentile in scoring in 2020, versus in the 72nd percentile this past season. The disparity is pretty big for roll men out of the screen and roll game as well (39th percentile in 2020 versus 85th in 2022).

The 2022 team was better offensively across the board, with comfortable advantages from 3-point range, in spotting up, and in the post.

Advantage 2022

By the Numbers Defensively

National Defensive Efficiency Ranking per KenPom

• 2020: 27th

• 2022: 44th

Synergy Numbers:

Halfcourt Defense:

• 2020: .832 points per possession against (66th percentile nationally)

• 2022: .823 points per possession against (80th percentile nationally)

Man to Man Defense:

• 2020: .821 (71st)

• 2022: .821 (79th)

Zone Defense:

• 2020: .878 (62nd)

• 2022: .835 (73rd)

Transition Defense:

• 2020: .852 (96th)

• 2022: 1.053 (23rd)

One of the flaws of the 2022 Friars was their transition defense, whereas the 2020 group was one of the best transition defensive teams in the country, ranking in the 96th percentile nationally.

In the halfcourt, all things were pretty equal, but the glaring advantage in transition defense, combined with the 2020 group having better individual defenders across positions gives them the edge here.

Advantage: 2022

Intangibles

Let’s wrap up with a quick one. The 2020 team couldn’t get on the same page for a large portion of the season, while the 2022 group rode cohesiveness and an “all-for-one” mentality to 27 wins and the Sweet 16.

The 2022 team seemed to be perfectly aligned from a fit perspective, and in their collective mentality. “The luckiest team in the country” drove analytic types mad by pulling out close game after close game, defying the advanced numbers in the process.

Cooley has been effusive with his praise in the past, but I don’t remember him speaking so fondly of a team in-season as he did last year.

Advantage: 2022

Summary: The 2020 Friars were going to be a terrifying group for any team that had to face them had that postseason taken place. They got a huge boost from the resurgent Luwane Pipkins down the stretch. PC had the individual and team defenders that would have kept them in any game, but they may not have been as well equipped to survive a bad offensive night from Pipkins or Diallo in the same manner that the 2022 team could have had Bynum, Watson or Durham been slowed.

Ultimately, for as hot as the 2020 team got down the stretch, it’s impossible to ignore a season’s worth of games in which the 2022 team simply found ways to win against just about anyone they matched up with.

2022 Friars Win, 76-71

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The Friar Basketball crew weighs in:

Craig Leighton:

I would have to give an edge to the 2021-22 Friars, although it would be a very close contest for a few reasons. 

First, even though both squads were peaking at the end of the season and were going to be a tough matchup for anyone, the ’21-22 Friars just knew how to win at the end of games. This is an intangible that has always separated good teams from the very good to great ones. 

Secondly, the ’21-22 team had one of the best defensive stoppers in the country in Justin Minaya. Providence was able to win several games because Minaya was able to shut down the opponents’ best player. 

Finally, I feel that the ’21-22 Friars were a more balanced team, whereas the ’19-20 team was a little more top-heavy. The ’21-22 squad had several players that could, and did, step up to lead the Friars to victory. It would be a close game, but let’s say the ’21-22 Friars win, 84-81, on a last minute 3-pointer by Jared Bynum.

Billy Ricci

For me, the 2019-20 Friars vs. the 2021-22 Friars debate (that came to life last week via Nate Watson) begins on November 28, 2019. Turkey, stuffing, mashed potatoes… even pie tasted bad on this Thanksgiving. A 17 point spread in favor of the Friars, turned into a 17 point blown lead and a loss to Long Beach State? Followed by a loss to the College of Charleston? Oh, and a throttling loss to Florida at the Barclays? I was there for the Florida game, Friar fans hit the exits in a tidal wave four minutes into the second half. When Kevin and I sat down with AJ Reeves for Episode 24 of the Friar Podcast, Reeves mentioned after the Florida loss that Ed Cooley scheduled a meeting and asked “What is your role on this team?” to everyone down to the walk-ons.

After 2018-19 it seemed we could only go up heading into the 2019-2020 season, but I don’t think anyone could have predicted five wins against ranked opponents in a month’s time, and 93 points to end the shortened season. Imagine if Emmitt Holt had been the player he was prior to his illness? It’s hard to pick against the 19-20 team considering the rise of David Duke, the underrated consistency of Alpha Diallo on both ends of the floor, and the head scratcher to unsung hero Luwane Pipkins became down the stretch, averaging 20 a game. But truthfully, even with the offensive explosion, some really great individual defenders, and some key pieces really coming into their own at the right time…I’m still going 21-22.

Why? Three things.

1.     Experience

The sheer amount of high level college basketball the 21-22 Friars had in their starting lineup can’t be understated if these two teams were to match up. Having three fifth year seniors and two four year guys is what I believe made this team what it was…older than the OKC Thunder! In ‘19-20 we were still a year away from David Duke becoming an NBA level talent, Nate Watson wasn’t healthy nor at his breakout point, and Reeves was in a bit of a sophomore slump. When it comes to experience and having guys all in similar “this is the year” positions in their college basketball career – give me 21-22 all day!

2.     Having One…Two…even Three Closers

When it comes to 21-22, Al Durham will be known for years to come as the “Mariano Rivera” Cooley dubbed him to be. But what made the ‘21-22 Friars, I believe, to be better than the ‘19-20 Friars in the clutch was having three guards who all could make the big shot. Al being the first when we think of the Wisconsin game and the Big East Quarterfinals, AJ who was shooting the ball with as high of confidence as we had seen mixed with his track record of being “Big Shot A”, and ‘JB Dimes’, of course, who took center stage with his game winner at Xavier. If the game is on the line, I like my chances with ‘21-22 team.

3.     Comradery

Instead of getting down to the analytics on this third point, I am sticking with an intangible that this team displayed the whole year….a genuine interest to play for each other. This team railed around AJ’s return, Jared’s willingness to come off the bench, Nate coming back for his fifth year to win in front of the fans. It felt like the individual stats didn’t matter, or how the media viewed this team as being “lucky”. In a best of seven series that Watson proposed; I know this team wouldn’t get too high or two low and would do just enough to win as they did all season. Both teams are equally legendary though. I wish we could have seen for ourselves what the 19-20 team would have done in both tourneys!